Hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm xyoo 2026, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam textile nthuav tawm qhov tsis txaus ntseeg "zaj dab neeg ntawm ob lub siab": polyester xa tawm tau ntaus cov ntaub ntawv siab, thaum tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw-xws li paj rwb thiab polyester staple fiber ntau- tau nce siab, ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam tsis tu ncua ntawm cov txiaj ntsig zoo rau cov xov paj thiab cov chaw tsim khoom.
Polyester Exports: Siab -Level Loj hlob coj los ntawm Filaments
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv kev lis kev cai, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom polyester xa tawm mus txog 1.2775 lab tons hauv lub Peb Hlis 2026, ib xyoos - ntawm - xyoo nce ntawm 2.82%. Kev xa tawm ntau ntxiv rau thawj peb lub hlis twg yog tag nrho 3.6462 lab tons, nce 8.40% xyoo-rau- xyoo. Qhov no yog qhov thib peb lub hlis sib law liag ntawm cov ntaub ntawv{11}} rhuav tshem cov khoom xa tawm rau lub sijhawm sib thooj, ua rau pom kev sib tw muaj zog ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam polyester hauv cov khoom siv thoob ntiaj teb.
Ntawm cov khoom no, polyester filament ua tau zoo tshaj plaws, nrog rau kev xa tawm nce 14.98% xyoo-rau- xyoo hauv lub Peb Hlis. Lub hauv paus tsav tsheb tom qab qhov kev loj hlob no yog kev lag luam Indian: tom qab Is Nrias teb tau tshem ntawm BIS daim ntawv pov thawj, Tuam Tshoj cov filament xa tawm mus rau Is Nrias teb tau nce mus rau 64,700 tons hauv lub Peb Hlis -ntau 33.36% xyoo- ntawm - xyoo nce -kev ua lag luam loj tshaj plaws hauv Is Nrias teb.
Raw Material Costs: A "Dual Surge" hauv paj rwb thiab Polyester Staple Fiber
Nyob rau hauv sib piv rau lub booming export lag luam, upstream raw khoom nqi nce sharply:
Paj Rwb: Tom qab hnub so Lunar Xyoo Tshiab, Zhengzhou Paj Rwb yav tom ntej tau ntsib ob txoj kev taug kev ceev ceev. Spot tus nqi rau ginned paj rwb tsub kom nce los ntawm kwv yees li 1,600 RMB ib tuj, qhia txog kev txhawb nqa kev sib raug zoo ntawm yav tom ntej thiab cov khw muag khoom.
Polyester Staple Fiber: cuam tshuam los ntawm geopolitical tsis sib haum xeeb, cov nqi roj crude volatility tau xa mus rau cov khoom siv tshuaj fiber ntau, ua rau cov nqi nce ntawm kwv yees li 1,200 RMB ib tuj rau polyester staple fiber ntau.
Kev nce ib txhij ntawm tus nqi ntawm ob cov ntaub ntawv raw khoom tsim ib qho "dual-tus nqi nce nqi" scenario, ncaj qha squeezing profit margins hla ntu nruab nrab ntawm cov khoom saw -los ntawm paj rwb spinning mus rau fabric manufacturing.
Kev cuam tshuam rau Xov Paj thiab Fabric Manufacturers
Kev nce nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw tseem tsis tau dhau mus rau cov khoom lag luam hauv qab. Txawm hais tias kev txiav txim xa tawm tseem nyob ruaj khov, kawg - cov neeg siv khoom muaj kev cia siab rau tus nqi nce hauv cov khoom tiav. Yog li ntawd:
Tus nqi ntawm cov khoom lag luam tau nce siab, tab sis cov nqi muag khoom yog qhov nyuaj los kho kom raws sijhawm.
Cov paj tau paj tau nqaim heev.
Kev txiav txim - noj thiab tsim cov tswv yim teem sijhawm tau ceev faj, nrog rau kev nyiam ntau dua rau luv luv - lub sij hawm, me me - batch xaj.
Q2 Outlook
Polyester xa tawm yuav tsum tswj lawv qhov kev ua haujlwm zoo hauv lub quarter thib ob; polyester filament, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog - txhawb nqa los ntawm kev thov hauv kev lag luam xws li Is Nrias teb - tau npaj los ua tus thawj coj hauv kev lag luam. Txawm li cas los xij, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw yuav muaj kev pheej hmoo siab nyob rau theem siab, nrog rau geopolitics, tus nqi hluav taws xob, thiab cov khoom siv -xav tau kev xav tau ntawm paj rwb tseem yog qhov hloov pauv tseem ceeb.
Cov cheeb tsam tseem ceeb los saib xyuas:
Cov kev hloov pauv hauv cov cai xa tawm rau polyester filament khi rau Is Nrias teb.
Nqe tiam sis nyob rau hauv cov roj crude thiab paj rwb yav tom ntej.
Kev hloov pauv hloov pauv mus rau qib khoom muag thiab kev txiav txim - ua kom nrawm.